Immutable research result
Defined-Risk Iron Butterfly — Weekly
Training and validation use consecutive frozen historical stages. Missing or incomplete option lifecycles were skipped rather than priced by proxy.
Stage evidence
| Stage | ROI | Adverse ROI | Win rate | Profit factor | Sharpe | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training3 completed, 0 skipped | −2.35% | −2.59% | +66.67% | 0.25 | -0.53 | −3.13% |
| Validation3 completed, 0 skipped | −1.06% | −1.57% | +33.33% | 0.14 | -0.69 | −1.59% |
RESEARCH RECORD ID
fba0847769ce…
The strategy, protocol, data snapshots, costs and deterministic assumptions are fingerprinted together.
PAPER-OBSERVATION DECISION
Historical evidence unfavorable
Validation ROI, adverse-cost ROI, or Sharpe was not positive. The blocker is observed performance, not merely data volume, so this version is not approved for paper observation.