Options · prospective evidence
Experimental Paper-Observation Queue
These six option strategies may be observed prospectively because their historical ROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive and their only failed gate was sample size. They are not historically validated and cannot submit live orders.
Weeks observed0 / 12 minimum
First decision08-21-26
Experimental candidates6
Observation journal
| Strategy | Historical ROI | Win rate | Why paper observation is allowed | Decisions observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1-LC1Bull-Trend Long Call | +1.90%Adverse +1.87% | +50.00%6 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
| T1-PV1Bear-Trend Put Debit Vertical | +0.26%Adverse +0.17% | +50.00%6 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
| T2-LC1WBull-Trend Long Call — Weekly | +1.01%Adverse +0.96% | +70.00%10 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
| T2-CSP1WCash-Secured Put — Weekly | +0.62%Adverse +0.55% | +62.50%8 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
| T2-CC1WCovered Call — Weekly | +2.75%Adverse +2.68% | +50.00%8 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
| T2-BWB1WCall Broken-Wing Butterfly — Weekly | +0.93%Adverse +0.34% | +50.00%6 historical trades | ELIGIBLE · EXPERIMENTALROI, adverse-cost ROI, and Sharpe were positive, and modeled risk is bounded or fully collateralized. The failed historical gate was sample size, so prospective paper observation is appropriate; this is not validation or live approval. | 0 |
FROZEN RULE
No retrospective fill-in
A missed future observation remains missing. Historical data cannot later be relabeled as prospectively observed.
SAFETY
Paper execution remains isolated
The paper-order adapter is locked to Alpaca's paper endpoint and separate paper credentials. Central risk and kill-switch controls can reject an order, and the deployment contains no live-order URL.