Single-stock options · proposed trade review

NBIS $170 put · 12-18-26

The proposed short put failed the paper policy in force on 09-14-26 and remains unauthorized under v1.3 because no single-stock collateral class or approved strategy exists. It is analysis only; no paper order was queued or submitted.

Current statusNot authorized
Monday reviewCompleted 09-14-26
Order authorityNone

Proposed position

  • UnderlyingNebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
  • Structure · sell 1 put only if fully collateralized
  • ContractNBIS261218P00170000 · $170 strike · expires 12-18-26
  • SourceUser-submitted trade idea; no complete signal thesis or exit rule was supplied
  • ScopeStandalone review, not a new strategy version and not part of frozen Single-Stock Options Tournament v4

Monday snapshot—not an executable fill

NBIS current quoteNot availableMonday open $205.00; range $203.87–$217.00
Put ask ceiling$18.7015 minutes delayed · seller-side bid unavailable
Displayed activity1,422 open interestRow volume and displayed size unavailable

The Monday feed refreshed the ask and open interest, but did not reliably expose the current underlying quote, seller-side bid, displayed size, delta, implied volatility, or row volume. Execution quality therefore fails closed; the ask is used only as an optimistic ceiling to test whether the risk gate could possibly pass.

Expiration economics at the $18.70 optimistic credit ceiling

Maximum profit$1,870.00+11.00% on $17,000 cash collateral
Break-even$151.30Public displayed −27.66% to break-even
Theoretical maximum loss$15,130.00NBIS at zero; assignment and costs can alter realized results
NBIS at expirationOne-contract profit or loss
$170.00+$1,870.00
$151.30$0.00
$150.00−$130.00
$100.00−$5,130.00
$0.00−$15,130.00

Mechanical expiration payoff using the non-executable $18.70 delayed ask. A realizable seller credit would normally be no better than the ask and may be materially lower. This is not a forecast and excludes fees, slippage, early assignment, and any early exit.

Paper-risk decision

09/14 V1.1 ENTRY CAP · FAILED

V1.3 does not retroactively authorize this trade

Even using the delayed $18.70 ask as an optimistic credit ceiling, one contract's theoretical maximum loss is 15.13% of the $100,000 paper-equity reference, above the frozen 2% new-entry cap. The seller-side bid was unavailable, so execution quality also fails closed. The idea is analysis-only and is not in the approved paper-observation queue.

That historical review would have required at least $756,500 for one contract under v1.1. V1.3 classifies only SPY for collateralized stress sizing; NBIS still has no approved strategy, single-stock classification, complete executable quote, or order authority.
EVIDENCE STATUS

Historical performance is not measured

ROI, adverse-cost ROI, win rate, profit factor, Sharpe, drawdown, volatility, tail loss, probability of ruin, turnover, and regime stability are all unmeasured for this standalone idea. One proposed contract cannot establish an edge.

Monday review checklist

Executable option marketSeller-side bid, size, delta, IV, and row volume were unavailable; no fill can be modeled honestlyFAIL
Underlying and eventsMonday range was $203.87–$217.00; Public indicated 11-10-26 earnings, not independently verified on the official investor pageREVIEW
Assignment economicsBuying 100 NBIS shares at $170 requires $17,000 cash; willingness to own the shares remains unconfirmedUNCONFIRMED
Central risk policyV1.3 enables collateralized stress sizing only for SPY; NBIS requires a separately approved single-stock strategy and classificationFAIL

Public references: Option chain Stock page Official investor hub